New research analyzing two decades of Canadian census data finds that immigrant fertility rates have moved closer to those of Canadian-born residents, with the gap narrowing from 0.24 to 0.11 births per woman between 2001 and 2021. The trend suggests immigration alone won’t fully offset Canada’s demographic pressures, reinforcing why thoughtful, well-planned settlement and family strategies matter for newcomers.

What Did the New Fertility Research Find?

Long-form census data spanning 2001 to 2021 shows that the fertility gap between immigrants and Canadian-born residents has been cut by more than half. Two decades ago, immigrant women in Canada had roughly a quarter of a birth more, on average, than Canadian-born women. By 2021, that difference had narrowed to about a tenth of a birth.

The pattern held across most of Canada’s major source countries: immigrant women from those countries now have lower fertility once settled in Canada than women who remained in their country of origin. In other words, newcomers aren’t just arriving with different family patterns; they’re adapting fairly quickly to the realities of Canadian life.

Why Are Immigrant Fertility Rates Converging With the Canadian Average?

Family size decisions rarely happen in isolation from housing costs, childcare access, and career timing, and immigrants face the same pressures as everyone else living in Canada. Many report wanting more children than they end up having, which points to practical constraints, not necessarily a shift in preference. Delaying a first child while establishing a career, renting rather than owning, or waiting for stable full-time work all show up eventually in national fertility statistics, for newcomers and Canadian-born residents alike.

Which Immigrant Groups Saw the Biggest Shifts?

The convergence wasn’t uniform across every group. Economic immigrants and temporary residents recorded the lowest fertility levels of any group studied, which fits with a population that is often younger, career-focused, and navigating a transitional immigration status where long-term planning can feel uncertain. Interestingly, people who arrived in Canada before age fifteen, essentially those raised largely within the Canadian school system, had lower fertility than Canadian-born residents themselves, suggesting that the country a person grows up in may matter more than where they were born.

What Does This Mean for Canada’s Population Growth Plans?

For years, higher birth rates among newcomers helped offset slower population growth among Canadian-born residents. As that gap closes, immigration’s role in supporting the labour force and economy becomes even more central, but the researchers are clear that immigration on its own is unlikely to solve Canada’s longer-term demographic pressures. That has implications for how family-class programs, childcare policy, and settlement supports are designed going forward, since family formation among newcomers can no longer be assumed to happen at meaningfully higher rates than the national average.

How Should Newcomers Plan Family Life While Settling in Canada?

For individuals and couples arriving in Canada, whether as temporary residents, international students, or new permanent residents, this research is really a reminder to plan family decisions the same way Canadian-born families do: with a clear-eyed view of housing costs, childcare availability, and income stability. Building that plan early, rather than reacting to it later, tends to lead to less stress and more informed choices about timing.

Helping a Young Family Plan Their Settlement Timeline

A couple who arrived in Alberta as economic immigrants came to ImmigCanada wanting to understand how permanent residency timelines would intersect with their plans to start a family. Working with RCIC Eivy Joy Quito, they mapped out their permanent residence application against realistic processing times, factored in provincial childcare subsidy eligibility once landed, and adjusted their settlement budget to account for a parental leave gap in income.

Rather than guessing at timing, they were able to plan their first child’s arrival around a confirmed permanent residency date, giving them access to provincial health coverage and family benefits from the outset instead of navigating a temporary-status gap.

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