Canada’s immigration target of reducing the temporary resident population to 5% by 2026 is falling behind, despite new federal policies. With nearly three million temporary residents in the country as of mid-2025, experts now believe the target might not be met until 2029 or later.

The Current Landscape: More Temporary Residents, Slower Decline

In 2024, Canada set an ambitious goal to reduce temporary residents to just 5% of its total population. That number stood at 7.35% in late 2024. Today, it has only dropped slightly to 7.12%. While some steps have been taken, such as capping international student permits, the overall number of temporary residents continues to climb.

Here’s a quick look at the key numbers (as of mid-2025):

Despite the reforms, many international students are staying longer and shifting to work permits. At the same time, work permit approvals, especially those linked to asylum, continue to grow.

The Roadblocks to Reaching Canada’s Immigration Target

Canada’s immigration target isn’t just delayed because of numbers; it’s delayed because of system-level issues. These include:

• Lack of coordination between education, labor, and immigration departments
• Weak enforcement systems for permit compliance and asylum processing
• An outdated data infrastructure that makes tracking difficult
• Policy gaps in handling long-term stay conversions from student to work permits

For instance, while study permit numbers have dropped due to caps, the decrease has had minimal impact. Many students simply switch over to work permits after graduation, continuing to live and work in Canada.

Policy Efforts So Far: Are They Enough?

The federal government has introduced several measures, including:

• Study Permit Caps: Reduced intake of international students
• Bill C-2 (Strong Borders Act): Aimed at faster removal of ineligible asylum claimants
• Eligibility Adjustments: Stricter entry criteria for some permit streams

Yet, most of these reforms target only small portions of the population. Asylum-linked temporary residents, for instance, make up just 16% of the total temporary population. Even if those numbers drop, the overall impact remains small.

What Needs to Happen Next?

It’s clear that the issue isn’t just about high numbers; it’s about the structure behind them. Canada needs:

• A centralized system to track all permit holders in real time
• Better cooperation across federal and provincial sectors
• More focused enforcement, especially around long-term overstays
• A smarter strategy for admitting temporary workers and students
• Targeted support for industries that genuinely need temporary labor

Temporary residents are vital to Canada’s workforce, especially in health care, agriculture, and tech. The goal shouldn’t just be reducing numbers; it should be making sure the right people are entering the system for the right reasons.

The Future of Canada’s Immigration Target

The 2026 deadline for Canada’s immigration target is unlikely to be met. But that doesn’t mean failure. It means it’s time for smarter planning and long-term thinking. With realistic timelines, stronger infrastructure, and more focused policies, Canada can manage temporary immigration effectively, just not overnight.

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