As we approach the final quarter of 2024, the Express Entry system continues to be a vital pathway for thousands of immigrants seeking permanent residency in Canada. With significant developments so far this year, many are wondering what the last three months hold for Canada’s Express Entry in 2024. As draws slow down, key changes may influence the future of immigration, making Q4 a crucial period to watch. Below, we dive into predictions for Express Entry in Q4 2024, focusing on draw sizes, CRS score trends, and the types of applicants likely to benefit from the system.
Key Trends in Express Entry 2024
The Canadian Express Entry system has seen substantial activity throughout 2024. By July, over 88,000 permanent residents had already been admitted through Express Entry, putting Canada on track to surpass the 120,000 permanent residents target by year-end. The first half of 2024 saw a mix of general and category-specific draws, with the highest number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued in Q3. Now, as we look forward to Q4, the focus shifts to what’s next in the world of Express Entry.
Fewer Draws, But Targeted Invites in Q4
Based on previous trends, IRCC aims to issue around 10,000 ITAs per month for the remainder of the year. Although fewer in number compared to the massive ITAs issued in Q3, these draws will still outpace the first half of the year. Most of the draws in Q4 will likely be driven by specific categories, including the PNP and Canadian Experience Class (CEC), as these remain a top priority for the Canadian government. There’s also speculation that more French-speaking candidates and those with STEM qualifications may receive invitations, as seen in the recent category-based draws.
In Q4 2024, several types of candidates are expected to benefit from the Express Entry draws. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) applicants. Candidates within the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) are also well-positioned, particularly temporary residents already living in Canada. These residents may find that Q4 brings more draws aimed at facilitating their transition to permanent residency.
STEM and healthcare professionals, who saw limited targeting in Q3, may experience a few more draws in their favor during Q4. Additionally, French-speaking candidates are likely to remain a focus. Canada has been conducting French-language draws to meet its francophone immigration goals for regions like Quebec and other French-speaking areas.
What about the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) Score?
A common question among applicants is whether the CRS score will drop during the final months of 2024. Unfortunately, a significant decrease is unlikely. For Canadian Experience Class and Provincial Nominee Program applicants, the CRS score is expected to stay around 510—a similar trend we’ve seen throughout the year. For French-language draws, the CRS score may hover around 440, though slight increases are possible depending on the number of applicants. Meanwhile, STEM and healthcare-based draws may see minimal dips in CRS scores. However, since demand remains high, any changes in scores are expected to be marginal.
Looking Ahead to 2025 and Beyond
The impact of Express Entry draws in Q4 2024 will be felt well into 2025. The individuals invited to apply in these final months of 2024 will be the first to land as permanent residents next year. Additionally, Q4 will offer important insights into the future of Canada’s immigration policy, with the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan scheduled for release in November 2024. This plan will provide a clearer picture of how many new permanent residents Canada aims to admit over the next three years.
As we look forward to Q4 2024, the Canadian immigration picture remains dynamic. Fewer, more targeted draws are expected, with a focus on the Provincial Nominee Program and Canadian Experience Class. While the CRS score is unlikely to drop significantly, specific categories such as French speakers and STEM professionals may benefit from targeted draws. For those planning to immigrate through Express Entry in 2024, staying informed about upcoming draws and trends is essential.
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