New international student and temporary worker arrivals fell 73% between January and April 2026 compared to the same period in 2024, a drop of 199,335 people, driven by federal study permit caps, hiring restrictions, and tighter Post Graduate Work Permit rules. At the same time, 58% of new permanent residents in 2026 are former temporary residents already living in Canada, the highest share on record.

Two Numbers, One Strategy: What’s Actually Happening

These two figures, a steep drop in new arrivals and a record-high share of in-Canada conversions to permanent residence, are not separate stories. They are the same policy direction viewed from two different angles. Canada is deliberately slowing the front door while widening the path for people already inside the system. Understanding both halves of this picture matters whether you are applying from abroad or already living in Canada on a temporary permit.

How Steep Was the Arrivals Decline?

Category	Jan to Apr 2026	Jan to Apr 2024	Decline
Total arrivals	74,475	273,810	↓ 73%
Student arrivals	16,115	99,435	↓ 84%
Worker arrivals	58,360	174,380	↓ 67%

Student arrivals took the sharpest hit, falling 84%, which works out to 83,320 fewer new study permit holders entering the country during the first four months of the year. Worker arrivals dropped 67%, a decline of 116,015 people. April 2026 alone recorded just 4,940 new student arrivals and 21,900 new worker arrivals, figures that would have looked unthinkable two years earlier.

What’s Actually Driving the Drop?

This is not a single policy. It is the cumulative weight of several measures landing at once. The annual cap on international student study permits has throttled new study permit volume directly. A 10% limit on low-wage hiring under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program has done the same on the work permit side. Tighter Post-Graduation Work Permit eligibility requirements have closed off a pathway many graduates previously relied on to stay in Canada after finishing school. And restricted work permits for spouses of temporary residents have removed an entire secondary category of arrivals that used to pad the numbers.

None of these measures were announced as a single sweeping reform. Each was incremental. Together, they have produced the steepest arrivals decline IRCC has recorded in recent memory.

Source: Understanding student and temporary worker numbers in Canada 

Why Hasn’t the In-Canada Population Dropped as Fast?

Here is where the picture gets more nuanced. Despite the collapse in new arrivals, the total population of temporary permit holders already in Canada remains large, because people who entered under older, more generous rules are still here and still counted.

Permit Type	April 2026	December 2023 Baseline	Change
Study permit only	423,850	673,925	↓ 37%
Work permit only	1,554,015	1,233,155	↑ 26%
Both permits	208,085	320,800	↓ 35%

Work-permit-only holders have actually increased 26% since the December 2023 baseline, climbing to 1,554,015. That is largely a function of applications submitted before the recent restrictions took hold and still working their way through the system. IRCC itself has acknowledged that the full effect of the new measures will take time to show up in the in-Canada population data, precisely because existing applications continue processing under the rules that were active when they were submitted.

Why Are More Temporary Residents Becoming Permanent Residents?

This is the other half of the strategy, and it is accelerating quickly. In the first four months of 2026, 58% of all new permanent residents were former temporary residents already living, working, or studying in Canada, up from 48% in 2025 and 44% in 2024.

Period	Former TRs Who Became PRs	% of Total New PRs
2024	215,090	44%
2025	188,820	48%
2026 (Jan to Apr)	65,140	58%

IRCC frames this group as a strategic priority, describing them as well-integrated candidates who already hold Canadian education, Canadian work experience, and official language skills, the exact combination that historically predicts long-term economic success after permanent residency. The department’s In-Canada Workers Initiative reflects this directly, having already admitted 7,000 of a targeted 20,000 workers as permanent residents in 2026, reaching 35% of its annual goal by the end of April.

Most of these transitions are flowing through the Provincial Nominee Program, the Atlantic Immigration Program, the Rural Community Immigration Pilot, and the Francophone Community Immigration Pilot, rather than federal Express Entry alone.

What Does This Mean If You’re Already in Canada on a Temporary Permit?

If you currently hold a study or work permit in Canada, this data points toward one practical conclusion: your position is stronger now than it has been in recent years. With over half of new permanent residents already coming from the existing temporary population, programs like Express Entry’s Canadian Experience Class and provincial nominee streams are arguably the most relevant pathways available right now, more relevant than applying fresh from outside the country.

What Does This Mean If You’re Planning to Apply From Abroad?

The picture is more demanding. With study and work permit intake deliberately constrained, competition for the reduced number of available spots has tightened. A strong application now needs to anticipate caps and eligibility restrictions that simply did not exist two years ago, particularly around PGWP eligibility and low-wage work permit categories.

Frequently Asked Questions

Already in Canada on a Work or Study Permit? If you are a temporary resident wondering how these numbers apply to your specific situation, ImmigCanada can map out which transition pathway, federal or provincial, fits your work history and timeline best. Book a Consultation with ImmigCanada!