A recent Statistics Canada analysis sheds new light on census undercoverage for non-permanent residents, revealing that 38% of this population was missed in the 2021 Census, an improvement from 45% missed in 2016. This seven-point increase in coverage highlights progress, but also demonstrates that temporary residents remain one of the hardest population groups to accurately capture in nationwide counts.

Non-permanent residents now play an essential role in Canada’s labour market and demographic growth. As their numbers rise, reliable data becomes more important for planning services, shaping immigration programs, and tracking population trends.

Key Findings That Help Explain the Census Undercoverage for Non-Permanent Residents

This latest research examined multiple data sources, including IRCC records and the Census Undercoverage Study (CUS). Key highlights include:

• Ontario recorded the highest missed rate at 45%, while Quebec had the lowest at 22%
• Young adults aged 20 to 24 had the greatest likelihood of being missed, with a rate of 49%
• NPRs aged 30 to 34 were much less likely to be missed at 27%
• Study permit holders had a 45% missed rate, compared with 37% for work permit holders
• Individuals with less than six months remaining on their permit had a missed rate of 60%

These findings show that temporary status, short permit length, and age are major factors affecting census participation.

Understanding Why Census Undercoverage for Non-Permanent Residents Persists

Temporary residents often experience unique challenges that make census completion difficult, including:

• Frequent moves and short-term housing
• Uncertainty about how long they will remain in Canada
• Lack of awareness that they must complete the census
• Language barriers for some individuals
• The timing of permit expiry around Census Day

For example, a student on a short-term permit may not feel connected to the census process, while a worker planning to leave Canada soon may not see the need to respond.

The data also shows that individuals who later became permanent residents had significantly lower missed rates, suggesting that stronger ties to the country improve census participation.

Regional, Demographic, and Permit-Based Patterns

A closer look at the numbers reveals clear trends:

• Geography: Ontario’s large urban areas have more newcomers and more housing mobility, leading to higher omission rates.
• Life stage: young adults are more mobile and often move housing multiple times per year.
• Permit category: Study permit holders remain the most frequently missed group.
• Permit length: Those with fewer than six months left on their permit are significantly less likely to participate.

These patterns help identify where outreach and communication efforts should focus.

How Improved Administrative Data Can Reduce Future Census Undercoverage

Statistics Canada and IRCC are increasingly using integrated administrative datasets to fill information gaps. This approach offers several advantages:

• More accurate tracking of temporary resident movements
• Better demographic estimates between census cycles
• Stronger understanding of immigration patterns
• Reduced reliance on self-reporting among short-term residents

These improvements will support more precise policymaking across health care, labour markets, housing, and immigration planning.

Strengthening Data Accuracy Starts with Addressing Census Undercoverage for Non-Permanent Residents

Although the 2021 Census showed progress, census undercoverage for non-permanent residents remains a substantial challenge. With temporary residents playing a growing role in Canada’s economy and communities, improving census communication and leveraging IRCC administrative data will be essential for accurate population planning in the years ahead.