Canada is witnessing a significant drop in international student enrollments for 2024, with a recent analysis by ApplyBoard suggesting a nearly 50% decrease in approved study permits compared to 2023. This decline is much steeper than the government’s initial forecast of a 35% reduction. It has raised concerns about the country’s international education sector and its reputation as a top study destination.
Government Cap on Study Permits
In January 2024, Canadian Immigration Minister Mark Miller announced a two-year cap on study permits, aiming to limit the number of international students as part of the government’s “zero growth” policy. While the government initially projected 364,000 approved study permits, this is now expected to be much lower. According to the Apply Board’s analysis, Canada will approve around 231,000 study permits this year—47% fewer than in 2023 if current trends continue. The drop brings permit approvals back to levels not seen since 2018.
Impact on Post-Secondary and Graduate Programs
The cap has impacted not only undergraduate programs but also graduate-level courses, which are typically exempt from such restrictions. Apply Board reported that applications for these cap-exempt programs, such as master’s and doctoral degrees, have also dropped by 21% year-over-year. This decline is alarming for institutions, as international students are a crucial source of funding and diversity in Canadian higher education.
Lower Approval Rates and New Policy Confusion
A significant factor behind the enrollment drop is the slower processing and approval of study permits. In the second quarter of 2024, 54% fewer applications were processed compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the approval rate has fallen to 51% from 58% last year. This decline is exacerbated by confusion surrounding new rules, such as stricter savings requirements and changes to work visa eligibility for partners of undergraduate students.
Shifting Student Interest to Other Countries
The uncertainty and new immigration policies have led many students to explore other study destinations. Countries like the United States, Germany, and Italy are gaining ground as alternative options. For instance, there has been a notable 20% decline in global searches for “study in Canada” this year compared to 2023. This shift is particularly evident in key markets like India, Nepal, and Nigeria, where approval rates for Canadian study permits have plummeted.
Financial Strain on Institutions
The decline in international enrollments is placing financial pressure on Canadian universities and colleges. Institutions like the University of Winnipeg have already seen significant budget cuts, with international enrollment declines wiping out millions in revenue.
This trend has prompted concerns that it could take years for Canada to recover from the reputational damage caused by these policy changes. Despite these challenges, Canada remains a desirable destination for international students, and with adjustments to current policies, it could regain its standing in the global education sector.
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