A new Royal Bank of Canada report argues that Canada’s immigration system has lost its competitive edge since 2022 due to volatile policy changes and shifting public sentiment. RBC recommends stabilizing population growth near 1 percent annually, removing Express Entry’s category-based sub-draws, shifting regional labour-shortage targeting to the provinces, and rebuilding a two-step pipeline that converts high-skilled temporary residents into permanent ones.
What Does RBC Say Went Wrong With Express Entry Since 2022?
RBC’s core argument is that Canada moved too fast in one direction and then reversed too fast in another. Between 2022 and 2024, the country added roughly three million newcomers, close to a decade’s typical intake compressed into two years. That surge was followed by a sharp correction: temporary resident caps, lower immigration targets, and a rare population decline in 2025. The report frames both extremes as self-inflicted instability rather than the natural result of economic conditions.
One consequence singled out in the report is the toll on international students. More than 25 separate rule changes affected this group between 2024 and 2026, contributing to an estimated 20,000 job losses in the post-secondary sector as institutions scrambled to adjust enrolment and programming.
How Have Category-Based Draws Affected the CRS Points System?
Since 2022, IRCC has used category-based Express Entry draws to select candidates from specific in-demand groups, including healthcare workers, French speakers, and several trades, ahead of higher-scoring candidates outside those categories. RBC’s report treats this as a structural weak point: it argues the approach lets lower-ranked applicants leapfrog stronger ones on the Comprehensive Ranking System, diluting the merit-based logic the points system was built on. The categories themselves have also shifted repeatedly since introduction, which the report reads as evidence that national labour-market forecasting cannot keep pace with how quickly specific skill shortages actually change.
Source: Canada’s Immigration Strategy in 2026
What Changes Is RBC Recommending for Ottawa?
The report’s central recommendation is to return Express Entry closer to a pure, points-first model and hand occupation-specific targeting to the provinces instead, on the reasoning that provincial governments have far more visibility into their own local shortages and can pair selection with faster credential recognition. RBC also proposes stabilizing national population growth at roughly 1 percent a year rather than swinging between rapid expansion and correction, and rebuilding a two-step pipeline that brings in high-skilled workers on a temporary basis first, then transitions the strongest performers to permanent residence once they have a track record in the Canadian labour market.
The report also credits the government’s 2024 decision to slow population growth by capping temporary resident numbers, particularly international students, but suggests the correction went further than needed. Many capped students had historically been strong converters from temporary to permanent status, and RBC’s view is that Canada may now be losing part of a talent pipeline that had been working well.
What Could This Mean for Future Immigration Applicants?
None of RBC’s recommendations are law, and any shift toward a purer points model or provincially-led occupational targeting would require policy changes IRCC has not committed to. Still, the report adds to a broader conversation, echoed by immigration lawyers and policy researchers, about whether category-based draws should be scaled back in favour of overall CRS ranking. For prospective applicants, the practical takeaway is that a strong, well-rounded CRS score, built on language ability, education, and skilled work experience, remains the most durable strategy regardless of which categories IRCC prioritizes in any given year.
Immigration policy in Canada has shifted meaningfully over the past four years, and reasonable experts disagree on the right balance between targeted, occupation-specific selection and a strictly merit-ranked system. What is consistent across nearly every proposal on the table, including RBC’s, is that immigration is expected to remain central to offsetting Canada’s aging population and shrinking workforce participation over the coming decade.
Frequently Asked Questions
RBC recommends stabilizing population growth at about 1 percent annually, removing Express Entry category-based sub-draws, shifting occupation-specific targeting to the provinces, and building a two-step pipeline from temporary to permanent status for high-skilled workers.
The report argues these draws let candidates with lower overall CRS scores receive invitations ahead of higher-scoring candidates outside the targeted category, which it says weakens the merit-based design of Express Entry.
The report cites roughly three million newcomers over that two-year period, compared with immigration levels closer to a typical decade’s worth of intake historically.
The report acknowledges that Ottawa took steps to slow population growth in 2024 through temporary resident caps, though RBC suggests the correction may have gone further than necessary for high-skilled student pipelines.
No. It is one financial institution’s analysis and recommendation. IRCC has not adopted these specific proposals, and other experts hold differing views on how category-based selection should be handled.
Regardless of category-based draw activity, a strong overall CRS score built on language, education, and skilled work experience remains the most reliable strategy for Express Entry candidates.
Policy debates like this one can shift the categories IRCC prioritizes from one year to the next. ImmigCanada’s advisors track these changes closely and can help you build a CRS strategy that holds up no matter which direction Express Entry moves.